Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3863…6b04
other · 8 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
−$35 -74%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 93% −$33
crypto 7% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 75¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 49m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 4h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-76.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -67.6% -70.7% 25% 25% -79.8%
≤30d 5 -74.1% -76.5% 20% 20% -96.6%
≤90d 5 -74.1% -76.5% 20% 20% -96.6%
all 5 -74.1% -76.5% 20% 20% -96.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.5% 20% -96.6%
10% -78.8% 20% -96.9%
15% -80.8% 0% -97.2%
20% -82.7% 0% -97.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.31 · official $10.31 (match) · 11 history records