Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x385e…f018 other 11 markets active 3d ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3 (-18%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$1
crypto 29% $0
sports 12% −$2
politics 12% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-42.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -39.3% -45.0% 40% 20% -44.7%
≤30d 8 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 12% -30.3%
≤90d 8 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 12% -30.3%
all 8 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 12% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.3% 12% -30.3%
10% -47.8% 12% -37.0%
15% -52.9% 12% -43.1%
20% -57.5% 12% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $1 9d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 15d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit BUY KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 87¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.77 · official $4.74 (match) · 17 history records