Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x385d…fdee sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$127 (-2%) realized −$131 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$314
other 39% +$505
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.1% -36.8% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤30d 14 -30.1% -36.8% 50% 50% -8.4%
≤90d 14 -30.1% -36.8% 50% 50% -8.4%
all 14 -30.1% -36.8% 50% 50% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 50% -8.4%
10% -42.8% 36% -17.1%
15% -48.4% 29% -25.2%
20% -53.4% 21% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$278 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $506 +$288 +57%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $505 +$99 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,517 +$864 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $657 −$650 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $707 +$338 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$115 +57%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,006 +$261 +26%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $507 −$500 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $503 +$69 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $505 11m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 79¢ $604 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $505 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $506 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,517 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $500 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $62 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $91 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 36¢ $153 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $47 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 70¢ $504 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $707 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $1,006 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $507 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 94¢ $572 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $503 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.85 · official $503.85 (match) · 24 history records