Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x385b…b81d crypto 730 markets active 1h ago coverage 708d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,067 (+11%) realized +$1,938 · open +$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%343W / 382L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$161
14 days−$402
30 days−$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$258
other 4% +$202
politics 3% +$399
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -13.2% -21.5% 45% 45% -14.3%
≤30d 412 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 45% -14.4%
≤90d 707 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 47% -9.5%
all 725 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 47% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 47% -5.6%
10% -23.4% 47% -14.6%
15% -30.8% 45% -22.8%
20% -37.6% 43% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

708d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$1,938
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses343 / 382
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)725 / 730
History coverage708d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 725 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 57¢ $18 $149 +$131 (+733%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$42 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $102 −$5 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $103 −$81 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$12 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$30 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +146%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$6 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $10 −$8 -75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $12 +$10 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$43 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +110%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$9 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $153 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $96 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $585 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 6h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $18 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 12¢ $31 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $46 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $21 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.22 · official $197.22 (match) · 2167 history records