Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:06:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
38 0x385a…6933 crypto 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$608 (+1%) realized +$608 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate89%251W / 31L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$268per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$236
7 days−$180
14 days−$164
30 days−$1,511
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$42
sports 1% −$245
other 0% +$45
world 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.9% -4.2% 91% 30% -14.6%
≤30d 81 -2.2% -11.5% 84% 21% -15.5%
≤90d 279 +2.8% -7.0% 89% 27% -9.7%
all 282 +2.8% -7.0% 89% 27% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 27% -9.7%
10% -15.9% 14% -18.4%
15% -24.0% 9% -26.3%
20% -31.5% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$132 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$608
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses251 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)282 / 282
History coverage94d
Avg bet$268
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 282 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $308 −$305 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $293 +$15 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $277 +$16 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $271 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $266 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $258 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $245 +$13 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $240 +$5 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $229 +$11 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $217 +$11 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $203 +$15 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $186 +$16 +9%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $179 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 12, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $172 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $160 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $147 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 11, 7PM ET? Jun 11 $134 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 6PM ET? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 11, 4PM ET? Jun 11 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin above 63,600 on June 11, 3PM ET? Jun 11 $108 +$15 +14%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 11, 2PM ET? Jun 11 $107 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 11, 12PM ET? Jun 11 $102 +$7 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $112 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$8 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $92 +$12 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $78 +$14 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $71 +$7 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $57 −$30 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$8 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $92 −$91 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? May 31 $705 −$700 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? May 31 $607 +$14 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $121 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 1¢ $4 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $141 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $137 9h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $239 23h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $53 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $292 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $259 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $12 33h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $5 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $271 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $266 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $266 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $258 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $245 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 661 history records