Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x3857…160d crypto 774 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$642 (+1%) realized +$642 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate86%665W / 109L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$140
14 days+$248
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$357
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +5.3% -4.7% 100% 7% -5.1%
≤30d 202 +1.2% -8.4% 90% 9% -8.3%
≤90d 774 +0.4% -9.2% 86% 3% -8.8%
all 774 +0.4% -9.2% 86% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 3% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$18 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$642
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses665 / 109
Open positions0
Markets (closed)774 / 774
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 774 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $266 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 24 $702 +$65 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $350 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $350 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $350 +$21 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $350 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $137 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $301 +$17 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $350 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $350 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $49 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $300 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $150 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $301 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $123 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $46 −$14 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $350 +$14 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $301 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $300 −$126 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $53 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $216 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $103 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $300 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $244 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $154 +$18 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 08 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 08 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 08 $251 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $251 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 07 $251 −$90 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 07 $211 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 06 $150 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $150 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 06 $150 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 06 $150 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $350 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $268 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $266 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $56 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $383 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $384 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $352 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $351 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $363 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $350 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $363 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $350 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $229 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $87 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $350 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $148 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records