Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384d…03b7 world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 277d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
other 25% $0
politics 13% $0
sports 10% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 19 -1.2% -10.6% 16% 5% -9.8%
all 45 -0.9% -10.3% 20% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

277d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage277d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $89 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $110 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $4 $0 +11%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $8 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $46 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $46 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $32 −$1 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $47 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -7%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Nov 14 $7 $0 +4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 04 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $23 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 24 $2 $0 -21%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $45 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $45 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $40 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 35h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $2 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $45 39h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $50 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $51 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $14 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $21 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $9 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $50 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $50 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $50 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $50 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.95 · official $44.95 (match) · 124 history records