Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384d…8ac9 crypto 272 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$819 (-21%) realized −$819 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%141W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$578
14 days−$862
30 days−$862
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$166
sports 29% −$533
other 4% −$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -8.6% -17.3% 43% 43% -34.0%
≤30d 272 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 50% -29.6%
≤90d 272 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 50% -29.6%
all 272 -5.2% -14.3% 52% 50% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 50% -29.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 47% -36.4%
15% -30.0% 38% -42.5%
20% -36.8% 31% -48.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$819
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses141 / 131
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)272 / 272
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 272 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $88 −$87 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $148 +$39 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $120 +$28 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $99 +$21 +22%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $79 +$56 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$12 +76%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $165 −$162 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $165 −$163 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$11 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$12 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$17 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$13 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $99 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $88 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 99¢ $187 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $148 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Josh Hokit 99¢ $148 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $120 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $120 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $99 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $36 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $135 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $79 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $101 2d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $100 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $165 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $165 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 417 history records