Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384c…2688 politics 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$225 (-2%) realized −$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%5W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$92
14 days−$119
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$95
world 24% −$26
crypto 17% −$74
other 12% −$57
culture 11% −$29
sports 5% −$14
economics 4% −$27
finance 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.5% -17.2% 7% 0% -16.7%
≤30d 31 -7.4% -16.2% 10% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 50 -6.1% -15.0% 10% 0% -12.7%
all 50 -6.1% -15.0% 10% 0% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -12.7%
10% -23.2% 0% -21.1%
15% -30.6% 0% -28.7%
20% -37.4% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses5 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage45d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 20 $212 −$16 -7%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $39 −$2 -5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $400 −$27 -7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 18 $50 −$4 -9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $50 −$8 -17%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $50 −$5 -9%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 15 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $50 −$8 -17%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$3 -6%
Will G2 reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $150 −$6 -4%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 09 $11 −$4 -36%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $150 −$5 -4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $462 −$1 -0%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $160 −$4 -2%
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $472 −$4 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $695 −$25 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 05 $150 −$2 -1%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $464 −$17 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $59 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $250 −$5 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1,075 −$72 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $250 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $75 −$11 -14%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 25 $86 −$23 -27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 20 $250 −$4 -2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? May 19 $150 −$9 -6%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 18 $253 −$3 -1%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 17 $250 −$4 -2%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 17 $150 −$15 -10%
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m? May 17 $250 −$3 -1%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 17 $250 −$1 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 16 $145 −$5 -4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 14 $100 −$3 -4%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 13 $250 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 12 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 12 $17 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $852 +$12 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $125 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 07 $125 −$7 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 06 $1 $0 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 06 $8 −$1 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 06 $4 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 6¢ $39 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 7¢ $14 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 7¢ $62 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 15h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 15h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 16¢ $40 2d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 19¢ $50 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $48 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $37 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 2d
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 9¢ $46 2d
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 9¢ $50 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $48 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 2d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL Yes 70¢ $41 2d
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 15¢ $45 2d
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 16¢ $50 2d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 96¢ $50 4d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $47 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records