Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384b…8645 crypto 53 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%23W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$28
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -14.1% -22.3% 43% 33% -33.2%
≤30d 53 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 53 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 34% -11.8%
all 53 +8.0% -2.3% 43% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 34% -11.8%
10% -11.6% 23% -20.3%
15% -20.2% 19% -28.0%
20% -28.0% 13% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses23 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.40 · official $4.40 (match) · 135 history records