Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x384b…c2d6 crypto 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+2%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate93%110W / 8L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$73
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$3
other 29% +$76
tech 10% −$15
weather 7% +$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 38 -3.1% -12.3% 95% 3% -2.8%
≤90d 86 -5.9% -14.9% 92% 6% -7.6%
all 118 -3.0% -12.2% 93% 8% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 8% -7.7%
10% -20.6% 6% -16.5%
15% -28.3% 4% -24.6%
20% -35.3% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses110 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)118 / 129
History coverage164d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $128 +$73 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 56-57°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 62-63°F on May 27? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 20 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 20 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 13? May 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 13? May 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 10 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? May 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 07 $50 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 26h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 5d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $10 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 10d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $63 13d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $65 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? BUY No 98¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 18d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $20 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 21d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.18 · official $126.14 (match) · 264 history records