Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3849…4ad1 sports 187 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$4
politics 21% −$3
other 20% −$5
economics 10% −$2
world 9% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 4 -2.1% -11.4% 0% 0% -11.5%
all 187 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 86% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)187 / 187
History coverage165d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 187 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $27 $0 -1%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 25 $24 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 18 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $128 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $107 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $195 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $185 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $137 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $105 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $106 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $80 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $111 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $112 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $30 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $31 6h
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $27 12d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $27 12d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $23 23d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $24 23d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 90¢ $33 30d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $35 33d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 115d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $34 115d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $29 115d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $29 115d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 115d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 115d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $35 115d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $35 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $34 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $34 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $36 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $36 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $28 115d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $28 115d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $35 115d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $35 115d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $31 115d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $31 115d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $37 115d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $37 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 699 history records