Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
38 0x3847…5c87 economics 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,104 (+3%) realized +$1,262 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate36%28W / 50L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$510per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$745now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$321
7 days+$542
14 days+$542
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$683
world 12% +$2,023
economics 6% −$597
politics 5% −$1,108
crypto 2% −$501
tech 0% +$122
culture 0% −$1
sports 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +405.4% +357.2% 100% 100% +313.1%
≤30d 2 +405.4% +357.2% 100% 100% +313.1%
≤90d 6 +124.0% +102.7% 67% 67% +29.2%
all 78 -19.8% -27.5% 36% 28% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 28% -7.8%
10% -34.4% 27% -16.6%
15% -40.7% 23% -24.7%
20% -46.5% 19% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -33% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$87 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$745
Realized+$1,262
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses28 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)78 / 81
History coverage620d
Avg bet$510
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 26¢ 66¢ $177 $454 +$277 (+157%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 24¢ 11¢ $437 $204 −$233 (-53%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 58¢ 18¢ $290 $88 −$202 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $109 +$321 +294%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $43 +$221 +517%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? May 05 $451 +$261 +58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 22 $220 +$166 +76%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Apr 21 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Trump say "Bibi" or "Netanyahu" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $334 −$334 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Mar 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $410 −$400 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $600 +$262 +44%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $454 +$1,146 +252%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $441 −$147 -33%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $126 −$16 -13%
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026? Feb 26 $310 −$7 -2%
Will Trump say "Egg" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $152 +$70 +46%
Will Trump say "Too Late" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 25 $278 −$278 -100%
Will Trump say "Autopen" or "Auto Pen" during the 2026 State of the Un Feb 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the 2026 State of the Unio Feb 25 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 25 $215 −$215 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 19 $330 +$45 +14%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $90 +$20 +23%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $336 −$170 -51%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $90 by end of February? Feb 01 $643 +$27 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February? Feb 01 $3,129 +$73 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $85 by end of February? Feb 01 $4,389 +$145 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February? Jan 29 $447 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January? Jan 29 $8,739 +$65 +1%
Will Powell say "Not our job" during January press conference? Jan 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 27 $9,086 +$91 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January? Jan 24 $3,462 +$1,089 +32%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $100 −$25 -25%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $525 −$313 -60%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 10 $200 +$56 +28%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Nov 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Nov 25 $200 −$19 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 25 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 24 $100 −$100 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Nov 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 08 $250 +$153 +61%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Sep 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 06 $80 −$66 -82%
Will Trump say "Beautiful coal" or "Clean coal" during his AI speech o Jul 30 $2 +$8 +300%
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 30 $72 +$48 +67%
Will Trump say "Genius" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 30 $111 +$67 +60%
Will Trump say "Inflation" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 23 $371 −$371 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 21 $56 −$1 -1%
Will LDP win the most seats in the House of Councillors following the Jul 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $430 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $69 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $1 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $0 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $25 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 25¢ $5 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 29¢ $19 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 28¢ $53 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $1 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 15¢ $3 23h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 45h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $745.32 · official $745.32 (match) · 414 history records