Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x383e…a41a crypto 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$49 (-0%) realized −$25 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$819per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$10
crypto 22% −$3
politics 12% −$3
tech 12% −$7
other 12% −$3
economics 5% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,273) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$25
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage181d
Avg bet$819
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 20¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 17 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? May 18 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 22? Mar 27 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 07 $12 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Mar 07 $3,350 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 07 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 07 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 23? Feb 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? Feb 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? Feb 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? Jan 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 20 $3,300 −$7 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 20 $3,368 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 12 $3,232 −$3 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $3,238 −$3 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $3,247 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 1? Jan 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 30? Jan 01 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 29? Dec 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 27? Dec 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 26? Dec 26 $55 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 25 $1,270 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Dec 24 $1,268 −$1 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 24 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Dec 24 $1,266 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $1,277 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $35 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 36d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $78 87d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $12 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 107d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 107d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 120d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 123d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 14? BUY No 100¢ $33 129d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $36 139d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $30 142d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 147d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,293 153d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,300 153d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $3,313 153d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $3,350 153d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3,365 153d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $3,368 153d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,229 161d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $3,232 161d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,235 161d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,238 161d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $3,244 161d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $3,247 161d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 173d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.46 · official $66.46 (match) · 66 history records