Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x383c…5185
world · 38 markets active 2h ago
1.5score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage460d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 0 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $25 −$1 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $75 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $40 +$1 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jul 22 $0 $0 +50%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40k in April? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Kentucky win the Midwest region of the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $13 +$2 +13%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% $0
politics 18% $0
other 11% +$2
crypto 10% +$1
tech 7% −$1
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $9 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $14 13h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 24¢ $16 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $41 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $40 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $34 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 46¢ $40 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $40 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $36 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $36 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 8d
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio SELL Yes 0¢ $0 325d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 10 -0.6% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.5%
all 38 +1.3% -8.3% 37% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records