Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x383b…52b1 crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$406 (-10%) realized −$406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate39%130W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$440
14 days−$440
30 days−$571
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$625
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -72.9% -75.5% 12% 10% -70.8%
≤30d 213 -17.0% -24.9% 35% 34% -28.3%
≤90d 298 -17.4% -25.2% 34% 34% -24.1%
all 334 -11.0% -19.5% 39% 37% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -23.6%
10% -27.2% 36% -30.9%
15% -34.2% 35% -37.6%
20% -40.7% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses130 / 204
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 334
History coverage105d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$45 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$20 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$15 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $33 −$22 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$32 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$8 +200%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$15 +147%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $22 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $21 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $118 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 944 history records