Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:57:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x383b…1eac
other · 101 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)101 / 101
History coverage126d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Raptors Raptors 42¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Magic vs. Suns Magic 42¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $180 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $273 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $119 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $55 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $57 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $71 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $177 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 07 $70 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $59 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $127 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 02 $66 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 02 $72 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$4
politics 16% −$1
sports 14% $0
economics 7% $0
tech 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 52d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $51 52d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $51 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $55 53d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 53d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 53d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 54d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 54d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 54d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $48 54d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 54d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 54d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 54d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 55d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 55d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 55d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 55d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $69 55d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $69 55d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 56d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 56d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 56d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 57d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $66 57d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 101 -2.0% -11.3% 9% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records