Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3838…f22c other 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4,397 (-58%) realized −$4,170 · open −$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -93% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -94% what you keep after slip
Net edge-94%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$398per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$1,565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,774
14 days−$2,901
30 days−$4,401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$2,799
sports 40% −$1,829
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-93.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 16 -92.8% -93.5% 6% 6% -81.1%
≤90d 16 -92.8% -93.5% 6% 6% -81.1%
all 16 -92.8% -93.5% 6% 6% -81.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -93.5% 6% -81.1%
10% -94.1% 0% -82.9%
15% -94.7% 0% -84.6%
20% -95.2% 0% -86.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -93% · $-wt -79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$155 vs −$304 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,565
Realized−$4,170
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 15
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage15d
Avg bet$398
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 33¢ 26¢ $1,442 $1,113 −$329 (-23%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $250 $451 +$201 (+81%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,522 −$1,500 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $409 −$400 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $308 −$214 -69%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,004 +$155 +15%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $98 −$96 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $99 −$96 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $805 −$800 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $710 −$700 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 56¢ $445 7m
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 41m
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $257 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $204 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $820 2h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,421 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $290 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 5d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 7¢ $84 6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $206 6d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 6d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 6d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $98 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $70 8d
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $99 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $709 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 87¢ $295 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $322 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $483 14d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $710 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,564.67 · official $1,564.67 (match) · 31 history records