Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:11:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3838…45ac crypto 308 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$57 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%163W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$22
14 days−$9
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$33
other 4% −$21
world 1% −$1
politics 0% −$3
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 49% -1.1%
≤30d 307 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 45% -10.3%
≤90d 307 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 45% -10.3%
all 307 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 45% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 45% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 40% -18.9%
15% -33.8% 37% -26.7%
20% -40.3% 33% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses163 / 144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)307 / 308
History coverage25d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 307 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 117 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$7 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$5 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +73%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$21 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$18 +113%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$21 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$6 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 39m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 746 history records