Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3834…d360 sports 366 markets active 4d ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%172W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day43.3pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$46
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$69
other 3% −$25
world 2% −$30
crypto 2% −$73
tech 1% −$1
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 43% -13.2%
≤30d 294 -4.5% -13.6% 49% 41% -9.8%
≤90d 365 -4.1% -13.3% 47% 39% -10.4%
all 365 -4.1% -13.3% 47% 39% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 39% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 33% -18.9%
15% -29.1% 25% -26.8%
20% -36.1% 18% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses172 / 193
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)365 / 366
History coverage31d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day43.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? No 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $7 −$3 -48%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $23 −$4 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$2 +13%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 09 $6 +$2 +40%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 +$15 +71%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $10 −$1 -8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $6 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $13 −$1 -7%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $12 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $26 −$3 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $4 +$1 +25%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $4 −$1 -12%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 08 $14 +$1 +7%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $17 +$9 +57%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$4 +56%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $23 −$4 -18%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 −$3 -60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $5 $0 +9%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $42 −$24 -59%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$10 -33%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $13 +$2 +14%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$1 -22%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $4 −$1 -29%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$3 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $7 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $38 −$27 -69%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $14 −$6 -43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $19 +$3 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$4 -35%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $6 −$2 -41%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $7 +$2 +36%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $12 $0 +4%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 06 $8 +$5 +70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $6 +$1 +9%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $84 −$51 -61%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $43 +$12 +27%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $14 +$6 +44%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 −$2 -21%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $7 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz SELL Mattia Bellucci 30¢ $4 4d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 56¢ $7 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $19 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $24 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $14 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 65¢ $30 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 64¢ $6 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 64¢ $6 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 65¢ $4 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 63¢ $6 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 57¢ $6 7d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) BUY BIG 71¢ $6 7d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 45¢ $4 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $6 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 7d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $7 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $5 7d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 63¢ $35 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 92¢ $6 8d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery SELL Daria Kasatkina 47¢ $9 8d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Kasatkina 48¢ $5 8d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Kasatkina 51¢ $5 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $6 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $6 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 77¢ $6 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $6 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $12 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $13 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 75¢ $6 8d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 65¢ $6 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $6.04 (match) · 1471 history records