Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3833…eef3 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+4%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +41% what you keep after slip
Net edge+41%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$1
world 32% +$38
politics 15% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+41.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 10 +206.4% +177.2% 50% 40% -0.6%
≤90d 10 +206.4% +177.2% 50% 40% -0.6%
all 37 +55.8% +41.0% 38% 11% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.0% 11% -5.6%
10% +27.5% 5% -14.7%
15% +15.2% 5% -22.9%
20% +3.9% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +108% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×19.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.67 per $1 lost it wins $19.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage273d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $62 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 +14%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $64 +$8 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $62 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $64 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $7 +$3 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $1 +$27 +2193%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Oct 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $22 −$1 -3%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $26 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 26 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 24 $22 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $8 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $2 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $18 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $44 9h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 22d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $10 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $36 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $26 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $45 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $36 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $4 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $31 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 57¢ $15 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 57¢ $44 23d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 57¢ $5 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $50 23d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $11 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $62 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.55 · official $48.55 (match) · 124 history records