Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3831…7f10
sports · 359 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$805 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$778 · open −$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized−$778
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses198 / 158
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions3
Markets (closed)356 / 359
History coverage107d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 356 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$392
7 days−$594
14 days−$594
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ 94¢ $33 $66 +$33 (+98%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 58¢ 56¢ $61 $59 −$2 (-3%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 64¢ 84¢ $27 $35 +$8 (+31%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 39¢ 44¢ $31 $34 +$4 (+13%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ 6¢ $43 $4 −$39 (-91%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Veronika Erjavec 43¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Laura Samson 38¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Daniel Evans 34¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Daniel Galan 47¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Dino Prizmic 48¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers 49¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Lanlana Tararudee 45¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 30¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $91 −$1 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $54 −$29 -55%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $59 −$19 -33%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $85 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $88 −$43 -49%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $74 −$34 -46%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $41 −$27 -66%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $100 −$44 -44%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $100 −$45 -45%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $60 −$28 -46%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $100 −$49 -49%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $39 −$1 -3%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $77 $0 -0%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 13 $81 −$3 -3%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 13 $78 +$2 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $78 −$3 -4%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $84 −$5 -6%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $89 −$6 -6%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $97 −$11 -12%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 13 $92 +$5 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 13 $44 −$3 -7%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 13 $45 −$2 -4%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 13 $39 $0 -1%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $45 $0 -1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $54 −$4 -7%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Hynek Barton Jun 13 $54 $0 +1%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $64 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 13 $67 −$3 -4%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 13 $79 −$5 -7%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $83 −$3 -4%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 13 $80 +$1 +1%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $99 +$2 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $100 −$8 -8%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 13 $100 −$10 -10%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 13 $106 −$8 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 13 $100 −$8 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $94 −$3 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $68 −$1 -1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $23 −$2 -9%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $28 −$4 -15%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $16 −$2 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$779
other 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL Minnesota Lynx 16¢ $11 6m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $5 24m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 78¢ $9 27m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $4 35m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $2 35m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $2 35m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 62¢ $3 38m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 36¢ $5 39m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $5 50m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $5 50m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $3 50m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $2 51m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $2 51m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 74¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 30¢ $4 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 35¢ $4 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 39¢ $8 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $0 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $7 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 61¢ $3 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 38¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Minnesota Lynx 41¢ $6 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 73¢ $9 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 30¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 69¢ $6 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $7 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 58¢ $3 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $5 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 40¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 -16.4% -24.3% 28% 9% -15.5%
≤30d 111 -16.4% -24.3% 28% 9% -15.5%
≤90d 169 -29.6% -36.3% 28% 12% -19.9%
all 356 -6.3% -15.2% 56% 30% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.2% 30% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.3% 18% -21.9%
15% -30.7% 11% -29.4%
20% -37.5% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.75 · official $198.76 (match) · 3500 history records