Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3831…afed other 103 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$143 (+2%) realized +$181 · open −$38
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%20W / 77L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$505now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$181
14 days+$180
30 days+$167
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% −$47
other 25% +$164
politics 17% +$3
finance 11% −$5
tech 10% −$4
sports 5% −$11
crypto 3% $0
culture 1% +$4
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.7% -31.0% 15% 15% +8.8%
≤30d 40 -8.7% -17.4% 18% 15% +2.2%
≤90d 87 -7.3% -16.1% 20% 9% -7.3%
all 97 -5.7% -14.6% 21% 10% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 10% -7.2%
10% -22.8% 6% -16.0%
15% -30.3% 6% -24.1%
20% -37.1% 3% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$5 · ×4.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$505
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses20 / 77
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)97 / 103
History coverage157d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $322 $319 −$3 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $186 $183 −$3 (-2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes $11 $1 −$10 (-93%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $11 $1 −$10 (-94%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-94%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $219 +$271 +124%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $320 +$160 +50%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $79 −$77 -98%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -14%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 20 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 20 $9 −$6 -69%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $23 −$3 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 06 $22 +$2 +11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 05 $85 −$2 -3%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 05 $6 +$1 +13%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -4%
Will Salvatore Alfano win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 05 $12 $0 -2%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 05 $9 $0 -4%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 05 $20 −$1 -7%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 05 $21 −$2 -9%
Will Ernesto Bello win the 2026 Castrovillari mayoral election? Jun 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $38 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $15 −$3 -19%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 05 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 05 $24 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 01 $6 $0 -3%
Will Russia enter Malokaterynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $32 −$6 -20%
Will Russia enter Myrne by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 01 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$1 -7%
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? May 31 $7 $0 -3%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? May 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? May 31 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 28 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $380 in May? May 28 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1.5% and May 28 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 May 28 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in May? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $128 in May? May 28 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 28 $3 $0 -3%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $640 in May? May 28 $71 −$7 -9%
Will Dollar Tree Q1 comparable store net sales growth be between 3% an May 28 $28 −$4 -12%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $170 in May? May 28 $57 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $190 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $327 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 30¢ $150 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $214 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $79 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $320 6d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $18 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 48¢ $24 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 49¢ $24 6d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $18 6d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 6d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 6d
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $3 6d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $20 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 75¢ $4 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 75¢ $4 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $11 13d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 21d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $82 21d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $21 21d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $16 21d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes $6 21d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $23 21d
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 21d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes $10 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $504.75 · official $504.75 (match) · 383 history records