Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

38 0x3830…d2d5 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$239 (+22%) realized +$69 · open +$170

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown38%max

Avg bet$134per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+11.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+23.0%	+11.3%	71%	71%	+20.7%
≤30d	7	+23.0%	+11.3%	71%	71%	+20.7%
≤90d	7	+23.0%	+11.3%	71%	71%	+20.7%
all	7	+23.0%	+11.3%	71%	71%	+20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+11.3%	71%	+20.7%
10%	+0.6%	71%	+9.1%
15%	-9.1%	57%	-1.4%
20%	-18.0%	57%	-11.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +33% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$62 vs −$43 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$555

Realized+$69

Unrealized+$170

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage2d

Avg bet$134

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown38%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	58¢	84¢	$386	$555	+$170 (+44%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$245	+$148	+60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$189	+$57	+30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$121	+$67	+55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$53	−$50	-94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$35	−$35	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$22	+$31	+144%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$13	+$9	+66%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	58¢	$393	1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$393	2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$245	6h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	76¢	$189	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$189	26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$121	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	52¢	$53	31h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$22	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$22	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$13	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	89¢	$35	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $555.46 · official $555.46 (match) · 15 history records