Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3830…f7fc crypto 89 markets active 12d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate53%47W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$23
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$109
other 5% +$35
politics 3% −$38
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 89 +0.2% -9.3% 53% 45% -12.1%
≤90d 89 +0.2% -9.3% 53% 45% -12.1%
all 89 +0.2% -9.3% 53% 45% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 45% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 30% -20.5%
15% -25.9% 26% -28.2%
20% -33.2% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$21 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses47 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)89 / 89
History coverage8d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 89 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $44 −$23 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$16 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$22 -70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $55 +$19 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$44 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$15 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$9 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$9 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $46 −$9 -19%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $20 +$27 +132%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $25 −$8 -33%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $49 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $53 −$37 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 09 $9 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 09 $56 −$11 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 5¢ $4 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $35 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $27 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $16 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $18 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 280 history records