Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x382f…4c26 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+4%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%112W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$57
14 days−$45
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% $0
sports 34% −$28
other 15% −$13
politics 3% $0
world 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -4.6% -13.7% 54% 54% -23.1%
≤30d 197 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 55% -14.4%
≤90d 197 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 55% -14.4%
all 197 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 55% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 55% -14.4%
10% -17.6% 40% -22.6%
15% -25.6% 35% -30.1%
20% -32.9% 29% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses112 / 85
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions5
Markets (closed)197 / 202
History coverage20d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 77 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -97%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $11 −$11 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $28 +$3 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $22 +$10 +46%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England win? Jun 28 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +38%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +60%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $3 +$2 +73%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 28 $3 +$2 +65%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +262%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $4 +$2 +42%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +32%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $2 +$3 +114%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $2 +$4 +262%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy Jun 27 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 +$4 +291%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +55%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 +$3 +109%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $4 +$2 +42%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 +$1 +21%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $3 +$2 +70%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 179.5 Jun 26 $3 +$2 +86%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$4 +174%
Japan vs. Sweden: Neither team to score first? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $2 +$3 +152%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +86%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $3 +$2 +76%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 88¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $22 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 2h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 26¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 33¢ $11 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $14 6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 6¢ $3 6h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $30 8h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 89¢ $28 17h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $22 17h
Will New Zealand win? BUY No 39¢ $2 37h
Will the match end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $5 38h
Will England win? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $4 42h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3 42h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 23¢ $1 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 44h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 44h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 70¢ $4 45h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $2 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 75¢ $4 46h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 20¢ $1 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 84¢ $4 2d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.51 · official $94.51 (match) · 375 history records