Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x382f…42a9 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-8%) realized −$96 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$980now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$153
world 19% −$2
sports 6% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-50.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -45.4% -50.6% 17% 17% -51.8%
≤30d 6 -45.4% -50.6% 17% 17% -51.8%
≤90d 6 -45.4% -50.6% 17% 17% -51.8%
all 6 -45.4% -50.6% 17% 17% -51.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.6% 17% -51.8%
10% ← realistic here -55.4% 17% -56.4%
15% -59.7% 17% -60.6%
20% -63.6% 17% -64.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$37 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$980
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)6 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $301 $302 +$1 (+0%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $115 $110 −$5 (-4%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $92 $89 −$3 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $87 $85 −$2 (-2%)
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+5%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $58 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $35 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-14%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $36 +$81 +227%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $82 −$80 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 45m
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 1h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $115 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 1h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 4h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 4h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $112 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 31¢ $32 11h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 11h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $74 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $979.63 · official $979.77 (match) · 54 history records