Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:37:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x382e…732f other 11 markets active 8h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-6%) realized −$43 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$919now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$29
sports 4% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -51.2% -55.8% 25% 25% -30.0%
≤30d 8 -51.2% -55.8% 25% 25% -30.0%
≤90d 8 -51.2% -55.8% 25% 25% -30.0%
all 8 -51.2% -55.8% 25% 25% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.8% 25% -30.0%
10% -60.1% 12% -36.7%
15% -63.9% 12% -42.9%
20% -67.5% 12% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$919
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $864 $873 +$9 (+1%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $31 −$6 (-16%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 24¢ $43 $15 −$28 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $66 −$4 -7%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $25 −$21 -84%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$4 +14%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $43 +$29 +67%
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 7h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $62 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $24 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 8h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes $4 15h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $7 17h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $22 17h
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 18h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 42¢ $25 18h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $12 18h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 44¢ $53 30h
Curaçao to score first vs. Ecuador? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 33h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 25¢ $2 35h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 25¢ $1 35h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 25¢ $17 35h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 42h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 45h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $9 46h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $0 46h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 46h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $3 47h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $205 2d
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No $0 2d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $44 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $919.21 · official $919.21 (match) · 36 history records