Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x382c…1cdd crypto 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (263 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$367 (+5%) realized +$358 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%54W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day263.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (263 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 46% -10.5%
≤30d 80 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 46% -10.5%
≤90d 80 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 46% -10.5%
all 80 -6.9% -15.8% 68% 46% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover263.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 46% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 26% -19.1%
15% -31.2% 16% -26.9%
20% -37.9% 14% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$41 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$358
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses54 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage2d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day263.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $258 −$205 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $85 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $124 −$45 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$47 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $264 +$36 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $127 −$84 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $658 +$42 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $95 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$15 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $190 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $168 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $392 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$48 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $168 +$20 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $45 +$8 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $43 −$14 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $255 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $90 −$34 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 19 $51 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$39 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $79 +$31 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $167 +$43 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $53 −$44 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $279 +$21 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $77 +$23 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $18 +$2 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $202 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $53 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $24 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $96 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $48 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $14 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $8 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $43 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $24 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $34 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $8 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $90 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $18 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 40m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.47 · official $148.42 · 453 history records