Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3829…f492 weather 99 markets active 19h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% −$23
politics 5% +$3
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 34 -2.4% -11.7% 15% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 98 -25.2% -32.3% 13% 0% -11.5%
all 98 -25.2% -32.3% 13% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 0% -11.5%
10% -38.8% 0% -20.0%
15% -44.7% 0% -27.7%
20% -50.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage58d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win at least 45% of votes in the first r Jun 06 $14 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 5? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 30? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 29? May 30 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 27? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw May 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 6 May 19 $14 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 17? May 17 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C or below on May 16? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 15? May 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 15? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 14? May 15 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 13? May 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 08 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 33°C on May 6? May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on May 6? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on May 6? May 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 5? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on May 5? May 05 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 19h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $14 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 19h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 45h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $15 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 9? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.99 · official $49.99 (match) · 315 history records