Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3828…8f92 world 85 markets active 3d ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,819 (-27%) realized −$1,533 · open −$286
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate54%40W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$551now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days−$566
30 days−$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$433
politics 27% −$185
sports 20% −$912
other 3% −$44
finance 2% +$2
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.2% +38.6% 100% 100% +57.2%
≤30d 17 -21.2% -28.7% 59% 41% -43.9%
≤90d 47 -27.0% -34.0% 55% 36% -41.5%
all 74 -20.6% -28.2% 54% 36% -31.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 36% -31.8%
10% -35.0% 28% -38.3%
15% -41.3% 18% -44.3%
20% -47.1% 8% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$59 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$551
Realized−$1,533
Unrealized−$286
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses40 / 34
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions11
Markets (closed)74 / 85
History coverage150d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $544 $316 −$229 (-42%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes 64¢ 65¢ $106 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $72 $81 +$9 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 86¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 63¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $65 $1 −$64 (-99%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Jun 26 $50 +$43 +85%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 20 $103 +$27 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $31 −$29 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$50 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $376 −$293 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 15 $283 −$265 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $112 +$55 +50%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $25 −$17 -67%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +33%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $165 +$36 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $179 +$35 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 25 $36 +$11 +30%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 12 $20 +$4 +22%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $4 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $140 +$32 +23%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Apr 23 $50 +$2 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $75 +$7 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? Apr 22 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $50 +$4 +8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? Apr 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 21 $10 +$4 +39%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $276 −$276 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 17 $749 −$608 -81%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 17 $94 −$75 -80%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $94 +$86 +92%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $107 −$107 -100%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Apr 09 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 08 $364 +$147 +40%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Apr 04 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 04 $1 $0 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Olympics" this week? (February 15) Apr 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 28 $158 −$63 -40%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Mar 28 $187 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 2d
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? SELL Yes 82¢ $93 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $10 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $50 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $65 8d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $15 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $5 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $2 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 5¢ $5 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $20 13d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $37 13d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $18 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $45 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $250 16d
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $299 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $51 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $51 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $50 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $100 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $50 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $80 18d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 25d
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $550.75 · official $550.83 (match) · 229 history records