Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3827…796f crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-2%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate81%69W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 44% -13.6%
≤30d 85 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 85 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 44% -13.6%
all 85 -3.4% -12.6% 81% 44% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 44% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 31% -21.9%
15% -28.6% 9% -29.4%
20% -35.6% 4% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses69 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records