Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3822…f173 crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$224 (-17%) realized −$278 · open −$139
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$278
7 days−$278
14 days−$278
30 days−$278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$214
other 31% −$203
sports 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 46% -31.7%
≤30d 26 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 46% -31.7%
≤90d 26 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 46% -31.7%
all 26 -11.4% -19.8% 50% 46% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 46% -31.7%
10% -27.5% 46% -38.3%
15% -34.5% 38% -44.2%
20% -40.9% 27% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$48 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$278
Unrealized−$139
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 82¢ 100¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$7 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$82 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $53 +$16 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$21 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $263 −$263 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$20 +91%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$43 -81%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$24 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$12 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$1 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $106 +$103 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $52 46m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $52 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $50 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $54 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $54 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $22 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $54 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $22 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $53 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 19h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $42 20h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $53 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $53 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $263 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $53 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $22 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $18 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $21 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.08 · official $61.08 (match) · 54 history records