trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -4.8% | -13.9% | 75% | 25% | -10.3% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -9.2% | -17.8% | 71% | 5% | -9.8% |
| all | 22 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 68% | 5% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.5% | 5% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -27.2% | 0% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -34.2% | 0% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 0% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1,199 | $1,198 | −$1 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $53 | −$20 | -37% |
| Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $35 | +$5 | +15% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 10 | $48 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 26 | $1,103 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? | May 16 | $1,173 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | May 11 | $1,099 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? | May 07 | $749 | +$1 | +0% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on May 7? | May 07 | $17 | −$7 | -41% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7? | May 07 | $62 | −$18 | -30% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 06 | $703 | $0 | -0% |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on May 6? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | May 06 | $72 | −$3 | -4% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 06 | $199 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | May 06 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | May 06 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? | May 06 | $381 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ted Cruz post 20-39 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | May 03 | $68 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | May 02 | $1,124 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from April 24 to May 1, 2026? | May 01 | $62 | $0 | +0% |
| Knicks vs. Hawks | May 01 | $1,127 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? | Apr 30 | $996 | +$4 | +0% |
| Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on March 5? | Mar 05 | $2 | −$1 | -50% |