Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

38 0x381a…d712 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$72 (+6%) realized +$95 · open −$23

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip

Net edge+16%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown72%max

Avg bet$44per market

Trades / day12.8pace

Fees−$8est.

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+25.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+38.9%	+25.7%	70%	65%	+15.3%
≤30d	20	+38.9%	+25.7%	70%	65%	+15.3%
≤90d	20	+38.9%	+25.7%	70%	65%	+15.3%
all	20	+38.9%	+25.7%	70%	65%	+15.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+25.7%	65%	+15.3%
10%	+13.6%	60%	+4.2%
15%	+2.7%	45%	-5.8%
20%	-7.4%	40%	-15.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +42% → late +36% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$43

Realized+$95

Unrealized−$23

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 26

History coverage3d

Avg bet$44

Trades / day12.8

Drawdown72%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	55¢	36¢	$66	$43	−$23 (-35%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet	Jun 29	$50	+$15	+30%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Jun 29	$40	+$3	+7%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 29	$20	+$6	+32%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)	Jun 29	$49	+$68	+140%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	Jun 29	$30	+$11	+37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$33	+$41	+127%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$15	+$9	+62%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A	Jun 28	$50	+$62	+125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 27	$61	−$61	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 27	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$50	+$7	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 27	$65	+$39	+60%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight,	Jun 27	$50	−$10	-20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$127	−$102	-81%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ta	Jun 27	$50	+$132	+264%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end	Jun 27	$16	+$29	+173%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$22	−$6	-27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$85	+$56	+66%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals	Jun 26	$14	−$9	-64%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half AND Norway vs. Fra	Jun 26	$20	+$6	+31%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet	SELL Arthur Rinderknech	100¢	$66	48m
Wimbledon ATP: Arthur Rinderknech vs Oliver Tarvet	BUY Arthur Rinderknech	76¢	$50	1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Br	BUY	47¢	$10	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	55¢	$67	1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	BUY Team Liquid	93¢	$40	10h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	BUY Team Liquid	75¢	$20	12h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	70¢	$10	15h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	74¢	$20	15h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)	BUY T1	41¢	$49	15h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants AND Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsb	BUY	20¢	$15	22h
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5	BUY Over	61¢	$15	22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	44¢	$12	22h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles AND Seattle Mariners vs. Cl	BUY	49¢	$50	22h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A	BUY	44¢	$50	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A	BUY	12¢	$49	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$61	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$52	2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	87¢	$50	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	74¢	$30	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$35	2d
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight,	SELL	25¢	$40	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	11¢	$25	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	55¢	$50	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	56¢	$77	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end	BUY	36¢	$16	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	SELL	18¢	$16	2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates AND Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Ta	BUY	27¢	$50	2d
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight,	BUY	30¢	$50	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.60 · official $54.64 · 53 history records