Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x381a…0ed5 other 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,809 (-1%) realized −$1,813 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,416per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$37
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$113
other 38% +$107
sports 14% −$1,798
economics 4% −$11
culture 3% −$9
world 2% −$25
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 36 +8.6% -1.7% 11% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -7.2% -16.0% 6% 3% -10.7%
all 161 +1.5% -8.1% 24% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 9% -10.3%
10% -16.9% 9% -18.8%
15% -25.0% 9% -26.7%
20% -32.3% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,627) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized−$1,813
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,416
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $339 $343 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,341 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $244 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $2,583 −$4 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,696 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $3,273 −$4 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $4,703 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $2,313 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,665 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $75 −$75 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $74 +$72 +97%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,494 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $632 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,405 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,024 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $2,620 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,469 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $5,890 −$7 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $4,573 −$5 -0%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $78 +$147 +188%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 24 $43 +$56 +129%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $5,375 −$7 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 21 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,390 −$2 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $576 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $1,645 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $1,623 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,624 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $3,153 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,621 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $1,357 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $3,167 −$5 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,566 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $348 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $349 3h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $214 21h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 23h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $243 24h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $244 27h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 2d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,342 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,531 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,533 3d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,074 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,076 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $339 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,693 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,696 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,651 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,653 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,236 9d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,238 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,157 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,159 9d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,246 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,247 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,663 11d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,665 11d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,505 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,507 13d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $74 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.65 · official $342.65 (match) · 521 history records