Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
38 0x3815…c74e other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$120 (-22%) realized −$131 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$25
crypto 47% −$152
sports 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +151.8% +127.8% 100% 100% +128.3%
≤30d 2 +151.8% +127.8% 100% 100% +128.3%
≤90d 2 +151.8% +127.8% 100% 100% +128.3%
all 7 +13.2% +2.4% 43% 43% -50.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 43% -50.2%
10% -7.4% 43% -54.9%
15% -16.3% 43% -59.3%
20% -24.5% 43% -63.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +152% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$48 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage580d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $120 $120 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $105 $117 +$12 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 +$25 +249%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner Jun 24 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Dec 18 $14 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 13 $215 −$181 -84%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 30 $35 +$29 +84%
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain? Nov 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner SELL Colombia 100¢ $16 3h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Team to Take First Corner BUY Colombia 64¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $96 30h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 30h
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 552d
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 557d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 29¢ $24 569d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 29¢ $100 569d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 28¢ $56 570d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL No 97¢ $56 570d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? SELL No 27¢ $34 572d
Will Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain? BUY No 39¢ $8 574d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? SELL No 80¢ $8 574d
Will Leicester win on 2024-11-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 579d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? BUY No 51¢ $35 580d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 28¢ $35 580d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.40 · official $236.40 (match) · 25 history records