Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3812…e4b0 sports 100 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-7%) realized −$620 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$300
14 days−$828
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,251
other 4% +$337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +19.0% +7.7% 41% 36% -13.7%
≤30d 96 +8.1% -2.2% 41% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 96 +8.1% -2.2% 41% 36% -17.1%
all 96 +8.1% -2.2% 41% 36% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 36% -17.1%
10% -11.5% 36% -25.0%
15% -20.1% 36% -32.3%
20% -27.9% 34% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$87 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$620
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 57
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions4
Markets (closed)96 / 100
History coverage13d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SPARTA 10¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $65 +$34 +51%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $154 −$151 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $61 −$59 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$87 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$148 +146%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $104 −$101 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$127 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $305 −$181 -59%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 +$227 +186%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$57 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $262 −$147 -56%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$314 +611%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $112 +$119 +106%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$52 +93%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 +$136 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $102 −$82 -80%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $82 +$3 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$56 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $439 +$186 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $204 +$201 +98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $301 −$272 -90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $235 −$232 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$51 +84%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$35 -29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$119 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 1m
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 5¢ $6 58m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 65¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 10¢ $30 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 33¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY INOX Division 49¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 42¢ $102 7h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $154 8h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 18h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 43¢ $153 21h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $102 22h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 15¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 22¢ $51 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $21 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 44h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $102 46h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $102 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 14¢ $35 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 22¢ $90 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.19 · official $99.19 (match) · 214 history records