Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

38 0x380d…f3c2 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$573 (-13%) realized −$573 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR12%break-even

Win rate17%4W / 20L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$191per market

Trades / day2.2pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$52

7 days−$18

14 days−$19

30 days−$598

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +12%

net ROI/market (all)+23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+59.7%	+44.5%	17%	17%	-10.4%
≤30d	24	+36.4%	+23.4%	17%	12%	-21.5%
≤90d	24	+36.4%	+23.4%	17%	12%	-21.5%
all	24	+36.4%	+23.4%	17%	12%	-21.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+23.4%	12%	-21.5%
10%	+11.6%	12%	-29.0%
15%	+0.8%	12%	-35.9%
20%	-9.1%	12%	-42.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +133% → late -60% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$33 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$573

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses4 / 20

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage22d

Avg bet$191

Trades / day2.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	Jun 28	$44	−$19	-43%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Jun 27	$0	$0	-100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 27	$0	$0	-100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 27	$0	$0	-100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$30	−$30	-100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$9	+$11	+114%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$510	−$14	-3%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$21	−$21	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Jun 25	$0	$0	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 25	$0	$0	-100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 25	$0	$0	-100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	Jun 25	$82	+$51	+63%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 24	$0	$0	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 24	$0	$0	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 24	$0	+$7	+9900%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$760	−$1	-0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 23	$486	$0	-0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 22	$366	$0	-0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$485	−$1	-0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$358	$0	-0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$324	$0	-0%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 11	$234	−$230	-98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2	Jun 09	$350	−$350	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6?	Jun 06	$520	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	36¢	$18	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	41¢	$24	1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	43¢	$26	1h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$0	6h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$0	6h
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	6h
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	61¢	$30	7h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	46¢	$9	28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	SELL Under	53¢	$265	28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	SELL Under	47¢	$231	28h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Under	51¢	$0	32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Under	51¢	$37	32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Under	51¢	$1	32h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Under	51¢	$472	32h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	31¢	$21	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	39¢	$21	3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	41¢	$19	3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	42¢	$33	3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	51¢	$41	3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$0	3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$326	3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$326	4d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$486	4d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$486	5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$366	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records