Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x380c…f262 crypto 74 markets active 6d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%35W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$6
crypto 29% −$9
world 18% +$1
other 3% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -5.4% -14.5% 75% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 74 -12.0% -20.3% 47% 5% -15.2%
≤90d 74 -12.0% -20.3% 47% 5% -15.2%
all 74 -12.0% -20.3% 47% 5% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 5% -15.2%
10% -28.0% 3% -23.3%
15% -34.9% 3% -30.7%
20% -41.3% 1% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses35 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? Jun 09 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 08 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? Jun 07 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C or below on June 6? Jun 05 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5? Jun 04 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 02 $3 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 2? Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2? Jun 01 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $4 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -45%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1 $0 +38%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -12%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 $0 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? SELL No 65¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? BUY No 83¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $4 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 10? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 57¢ $3 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? SELL No 87¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? BUY No 84¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? SELL No 92¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 86¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 88¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 84¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 82¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? SELL No 86¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 84¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? SELL No 89¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 8? BUY No 87¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? SELL No 86¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? BUY No 81¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? SELL No 91¢ $5 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 7? BUY No 88¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? SELL No 84¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 82¢ $4 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records