Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:58:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3809…cd33 crypto 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$676 (+5%) realized +$676 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%53W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$934
sports 8% +$637
other 4% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -14.6% -22.7% 15% 15% -17.6%
≤30d 170 +1.5% -8.1% 28% 25% -13.1%
≤90d 181 +3.9% -6.0% 29% 27% -11.7%
all 181 +3.9% -6.0% 29% 27% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 27% -11.7%
10% -15.0% 25% -20.2%
15% -23.2% 25% -27.9%
20% -30.7% 24% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$59 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$676
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses53 / 128
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage33d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $71 −$41 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $167 −$102 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $418 −$59 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $53 +$162 +308%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$19 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$10 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$112 +266%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $85 −$38 -44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 08 $151 −$143 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $158 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $62 −$62 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $158 −$158 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$60 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$54 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $107 −$77 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 04 $89 −$59 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $52 −$10 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$44 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$44 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $52 +$101 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 03 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 03 $105 −$64 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$70 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 02 $106 −$106 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 11¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $210 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $208 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $209 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $42 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $40 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $30.19 · 497 history records