Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3808…8b90 crypto 903 markets active 4d ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$525 (-6%) realized −$525 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%422W / 506L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$259
14 days−$263
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$225
crypto 46% −$157
other 5% −$81
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 584 -9.7% -18.3% 43% 41% -16.9%
≤30d 671 -10.2% -18.8% 45% 39% -17.5%
≤90d 928 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 39% -14.8%
all 928 -14.1% -22.3% 45% 39% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.3% 39% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 37% -23.0%
15% -36.5% 35% -30.4%
20% -42.8% 31% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses422 / 506
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)928 / 903
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 928 Trades
no open positions (415 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on Apri Jun 17 $2 −$3 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 70-71°F on April 5? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on April 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 8? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on April 7? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on Ap Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ap Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Apri Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -200%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ap Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on April 6? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -200%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +159%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +104%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records