Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3807…7892 crypto 797 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73 (-5%) realized −$74 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%349W / 447L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day58.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days−$11
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$84
other 4% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +23.5% +11.8% 46% 46% -8.1%
≤30d 796 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 43% -15.1%
≤90d 796 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 43% -15.1%
all 796 +5.8% -4.3% 44% 43% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 43% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 41% -23.3%
15% -21.8% 40% -30.7%
20% -29.5% 39% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$74
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses349 / 447
Open positions1
Markets (closed)796 / 797
History coverage17d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day58.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 796 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 49¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 453 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +132%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +142%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +159%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +148%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +170%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +102%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 45m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $1.26 · 1185 history records