Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:10:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x3803…6d3b world 4 markets active 10h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+2%) realized −$65 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$467per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$33 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,849
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage15d
Avg bet$467
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,652 $1,766 +$113 (+7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 83¢ $89 $83 −$5 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,849.18 · official $1,849.18 (match) · 13 history records