Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3803…7eaf sports 418 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (142 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$3,301 (+20%) realized +$2,658 · open +$643
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate56%200W / 159L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day142.5pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$2,986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$819
7 days+$1,223
14 days+$1,272
30 days+$2,182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$806
other 43% +$1,939
world 2% +$48
crypto 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (142 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 312 +37.8% +24.6% 58% 35% -4.2%
≤30d 359 +40.7% +27.3% 56% 35% -2.8%
≤90d 359 +40.7% +27.3% 56% 35% -2.8%
all 359 +40.7% +27.3% 56% 35% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover142.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.3% 35% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here +15.1% 26% -12.1%
15% +4.0% 21% -20.6%
20% -6.2% 18% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$15 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$2,986
Realized+$2,658
Unrealized+$643
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses200 / 159
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions59
Markets (closed)359 / 418
History coverage19d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day142.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 1¢ 82¢ $8 $660 +$652 (+8150%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? No 88¢ 88¢ $353 $355 +$2 (+1%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 52¢ 53¢ $274 $281 +$7 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 45¢ 51¢ $239 $270 +$31 (+13%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Neither team to score first? No 97¢ 97¢ $194 $194 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $184 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 50¢ 50¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 72¢ 72¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? No 94¢ 92¢ $94 $92 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 31¢ 30¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Variational launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 85¢ 58¢ $77 $53 −$24 (-31%)
Ivan Perišić: 4+ goals + assists No 91¢ 82¢ $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Joško Gvardiol: 4+ goals + assists No 91¢ 52¢ $61 $35 −$26 (-43%)
Andrej Kramarić: 4+ goals + assists No 91¢ 66¢ $46 $34 −$12 (-27%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 63¢ $18 $25 +$7 (+37%)
Iqraam Rayners: 3+ goals No 92¢ 71¢ $31 $24 −$7 (-23%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 51¢ 49¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-4%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 44¢ 47¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Ante Budimir: 4+ goals + assists No 91¢ 50¢ $32 $18 −$15 (-45%)
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 52¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Over 6¢ 5¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? No 88¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+13%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? No 88¢ 99¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? No 88¢ 98¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +238%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $99 +$7 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$16 +1548%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $42 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $61 +$59 +97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$37 +251%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +27%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$6 +482%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 +$3 +20%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $364 +$42 +12%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $8 −$3 -35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $70 +$137 +195%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$5 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $4 +$29 +672%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $116 +$69 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $104 −$19 -19%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 -9%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -89%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $167 −$166 -99%
Kosta Barbarouses: 3+ goals Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15 +$15 +101%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $292 +$56 +19%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $291 +$9 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $38 +$4 +10%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $14 +$6 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $17 +$15 +87%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $31 −$31 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 16 $25 −$24 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Feras Al Brikan: 3+ goals + assists Jun 16 $32 +$2 +5%
Feras Al Brikan: 4+ goals + assists Jun 16 $83 +$6 +7%
Khalid Al Ghannam: 4+ goals + assists Jun 16 $94 +$8 +9%
Salem Al Dawsari: 4+ goals + assists Jun 16 $32 +$2 +8%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 16 $1 +$19 +1845%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 +$10 +38%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $64 +$76 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $10 38m
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 1¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY No 50¢ $51 38m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 91¢ $15 38m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 38m
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 5¢ $1 38m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 38m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 38m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $1 41m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 42m
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 17¢ $1 42m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 42m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 1¢ $1 43m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $95 43m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 1¢ $1 43m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 40¢ $4 43m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 26¢ $1 48m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 48m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 48m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $4 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 26¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,986.00 · official $2,986.03 (match) · 2973 history records