Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:03:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3802…1a48 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$176 (+9%) realized +$152 · open +$24
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$137
sports 40% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-36.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 31% -4.7%
≤30d 26 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 31% -4.7%
≤90d 26 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 31% -4.7%
all 26 -29.9% -36.6% 31% 31% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.6% 31% -4.7%
10% -42.6% 31% -13.8%
15% -48.2% 31% -22.1%
20% -53.2% 23% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$29 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage4d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 38¢ 38¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $72 +$27 (+60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $51 −$40 -78%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$46 -90%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $26 −$18 -70%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$34 +66%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $62 −$35 -57%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 +$75 +73%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $102 +$91 +89%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $103 +$138 +134%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$39 +38%
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals Jun 21 $41 −$26 -64%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$92 +46%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $10 −$4 -41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$84 +55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$11 -23%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$7 -65%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 $0 -1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $103 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $102 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 13¢ $11 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 56¢ $51 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL Uruguay $8 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 22¢ $26 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $85 6h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 19¢ $27 6h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 32¢ $10 7h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $51 9h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL Yes $0 9h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $26 10h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $51 10h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $177 10h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $193 10h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 11h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $51 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $102 20h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 97¢ $241 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $141 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $102 25h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals SELL Yes 22¢ $15 25h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $103 26h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 40¢ $25 28h
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $41 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.33 · official $369.33 (match) · 59 history records