Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3802…236b world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$4
politics 21% $0
other 18% $0
economics 11% $0
culture 6% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +98.7% +79.8% 67% 33% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +22.5% +10.8% 58% 17% -8.4%
≤90d 12 +22.5% +10.8% 58% 17% -8.4%
all 32 +8.3% -2.0% 38% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 6% -9.2%
10% -11.4% 3% -17.8%
15% -19.9% 3% -25.8%
20% -27.8% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage267d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $6 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $33 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $22 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$2 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$4 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $79 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Dec 16 $3 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $2 $0 -3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 07 $25 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 07 $51 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 06 $22 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $27 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 12¢ $0 43h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 30¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $0 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $23 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $22 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $36 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $18 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $18 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 11d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.75 · official $46.75 (match) · 117 history records