Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:33:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37fc…7d57 other 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$80 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%27W / 109L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,131per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$16
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$73
other 38% +$575
sports 16% −$487
world 2% −$112
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% −$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -9.8% -18.4% 7% 1% -10.2%
all 136 -2.3% -11.6% 20% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 10% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 10% -18.2%
15% -27.8% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.9% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,354) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$15 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized−$80
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses27 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage127d
Avg bet$1,131
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $676 $671 −$5 (-1%)
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $537 $536 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,673 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5,466 −$6 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,371 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 03 $516 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $5,422 −$6 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,423 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,595 −$4 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $516 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $2,112 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Apr 21 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $406 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,440 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,862 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,746 −$4 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,207 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $2,286 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,063 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $537 1h
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $533 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $534 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $323 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 4d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $353 4d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,215 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $967 12d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $968 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,233 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $944 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $945 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $694 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $694 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 15d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,096 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $415 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $416 18d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,207.47 · official $1,207.47 (match) · 431 history records