Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37fb…f1f4 crypto 1445 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ bot/MM pace (77 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,226 (-44%) realized −$1,226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate42%608W / 837L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day77.4pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$40
14 days−$79
30 days−$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$348
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (77 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -32.5% -39.0% 30% 25% -37.5%
≤30d 542 -22.1% -29.5% 27% 18% -30.7%
≤90d 1445 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 22% -21.0%
all 1445 -12.4% -20.7% 42% 22% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.7% 22% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.3% 10% -28.6%
15% -35.2% 6% -35.5%
20% -41.6% 5% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses608 / 837
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1445 / 1445
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day77.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1445 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records