Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:57:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f4…8969 crypto 78 markets active 4d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%44W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days+$14
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 29% −$18
sports 25% −$18
other 17% −$13
culture 14% +$23
tech 6% $0
politics 6% −$8
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 67% 33% -11.6%
≤30d 18 -3.3% -12.5% 39% 11% -8.4%
≤90d 69 -5.4% -14.5% 54% 20% -12.8%
all 77 -4.4% -13.5% 57% 21% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 21% -12.4%
10% -21.8% 10% -20.8%
15% -29.4% 5% -28.5%
20% -36.3% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses44 / 33
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage96d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $17 $17 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $40 +$11 +28%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $60 −$14 -24%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $50 −$18 -36%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 09 $3 −$1 -55%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 09 $30 −$8 -25%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 08 $43 +$41 +96%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 03 $30 −$5 -18%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $30 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $30 +$1 +3%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $6 $0 -1%
Claude 4.8 released by June 15? May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will Mitch Johnson win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $25 $0 -2%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 20 $18 −$3 -14%
Gemini 3.5 released by July 31? May 19 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1500? May 15 $25 $0 -1%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 15 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $50 +$5 +11%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 05 $6 −$5 -98%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 05 $3 +$2 +67%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9 May 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 02 $49 +$4 +8%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $1 $0 +28%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $48 −$11 -23%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 20 $20 +$3 +17%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 19 $36 −$14 -40%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $30 −$7 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $18 −$5 -28%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $18 +$12 +67%
Spread: Suns (-2.5) Apr 18 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1500? Apr 17 $48 −$14 -30%
Will Claude Opus 4.7 by Anthropic debut at a score of at least 1480? Apr 17 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 16 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 15 $8 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 15 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 14 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Apr 13 $8 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 12 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Apr 11 $8 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 9? Apr 09 $8 −$2 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 8? Apr 08 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8PM ET Apr 08 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 6? Apr 06 $8 −$2 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $0 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 96¢ $1 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 86¢ $24 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 30¢ $24 4d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 37¢ $30 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 84¢ $7 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 SELL Yes 37¢ $22 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 50¢ $30 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 65¢ $16 6d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY Yes 97¢ $30 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 53¢ $32 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 79¢ $50 7d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut SELL No 46¢ $1 8d
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut BUY No 98¢ $3 8d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 46¢ $22 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 8d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 8d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 93¢ $14 9d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 70¢ $1 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 68¢ $0 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 68¢ $0 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 68¢ $8 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 69¢ $5 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 38¢ $29 13d
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An SELL Yes 76¢ $25 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.06 · official $59.06 (match) · 250 history records